"The math doesn't quite get there," Elias whispered. His equity (26%) was lower than the price he was being offered (28.5%). In a single instance, it was a "fold."
But then he factored in . He looked at Miller’s betting patterns over the last four hours. Miller was "over-bluffing" on wet boards. If Elias factored in the 15% chance that his Ace-high was already the best hand, his total win probability climbed to 34%. "I call," Elias said, sliding the chips forward. Mathematics of Poker
Elias began stacking the chips, his expression unchanged. He knew the Royal Flush was just a statistical outlier, a flicker of noise in a long-term signal. He hadn't won because of the spade; he had won because he was willing to lose when the percentages told him it was the right move. "The math doesn't quite get there," Elias whispered